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Analysis

The Tiny Trump Impact on the G20’s Rio Summit’s Performance

John Kirton, Director, G20 Research Group
November 19, 2024

On the eve of the G20’s Rio Summit, there was much concern about the impact on its performance from the election of Donald Trump on November 5 as the next US president, especially after his inauguration on January 20, 2025. Most observers felt that Trump would have a constraining effect, especially after Argentinian president Javier Milei rushed to meet him in Florida before flying to Rio to change Argentina’s positions on the summit priorities to those Trump preferred. However, a close examination of the Rio’s leaders’ declaration and its 176 commitments showed that Trump had virtually no constraining effect. In fact, on several key issues, all Rio leaders boldly agreed on positions and promises that were the opposite of what Trump preferred. These may have appeared anyway, due to the internal dynamics and compromises of the G20 leaders at Rio, rather than as a conscious, collective direct response to Trump. But even if the president-elect was not irrelevant at Rio, he had a tiny impact on what the summit did.

On the question of central bank independence, which Trump suggested he would curtail in the US, in paragraph five of the declaration the G20 leaders said “we reiterate our commitment to further promote sustainable capital flows and fostering sound policy frameworks, notably central bank independence.”

On taxes on the super rich, which Trump had promised to reduce in the US, the G20 Rio leaders, in paragraphs 19–21, said “with full respect to tax sovereignty, we will seek to engage cooperatively to ensure that ultra-high-net-worth individuals are effectively taxed.” In regard to corporate taxation, they stated: “We reiterate our commitment to the October 2021 Statement of the [Inclusive Framework on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting] and to the swift implementation of the Two-Pillar Solution by all interested jurisdictions, including expeditious negotiations on the final package of Pillar One.” Could “expeditious” mean within the next two months, before Trump’s presidential inauguration in January?

On migration, with Trump promising massive deportations of undocumented immigrants in the US, the G20 declaration in paragraph 34 opened by stating “we reaffirm our commitment to support migrants, including migrant workers and refugees in our efforts towards a more inclusive world, in line with national policies, legislations and circumstances, ensuring full respect for the human rights and their fundamental freedoms regardless of their migration status”(emphasis added).

On trade, where Trump had promised to hike tariffs on China’s exports and those of all other countries to the US, the G20 Rio leaders, in paragraph 75, opened by affirming “international trade is an important engine for inclusive economic growth.” They continued: “Ensuring a level playing field and fair competition consistent with [World Trade Organization] rules is essential to ensuring prosperity and fostering a favorable trade and investment environment for all.” They concluded with “we remain committed to conducting discussions with a view to having a fully and well-functioning dispute settlement system accessible to all members by 2024.”

On the war in Ukraine, which Trump said he would end on the first day of his presidency, the G20 leaders in paragraph nine of their declaration emphasized the humanitarian aspects and welcomed “all relevant and constructive initiatives that support a comprehensive, just, and durable peace” based on the United Nations Charter, but did not call for any ceasefire as the first step in the path to peace.

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