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Analysis

Creating Climate and Clean Energy Finance

John Kirton, Director, G20 Research Group, November 12, 2023

Commentary prepared for "From G20 to COP28: Energy, Climate and Growth," hosted by Think20 India, Think28, Observer Research Foundation and The Emirates Policy Centre in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, November 12, 2023. Version of November 10, 2023

Introduction

G20 summits have performed poorly in producing climate finance commitments and complying with them. Since the leaders started meeting started in 2008, they have made 33 commitments on climate finance, for 25% of the 134 they have made on climate change overall (see Appendix A).

Members' compliance with these climate finance commitments has averaged 69%, based on the 13 from the 2009 London through to the 2021 Rome summits, as assessed by the G20 Research Group. However, the average rose from 55% for the seven assessed from London in 2009 to Brisbane in 2014, to 85% for the six assessed commitments from Hamburg in 2017 to Rome in 2021.

1. Commitments from New Delhi on Climate and Energy Finance

The New Delhi Summit on September 9-10, 2023, did a little better. There G20 leaders made seven commitments on climate finance – the highest number ever – and four more on energy finance, for a total of 11 (see Appendix B).

The seven climate finance commitments addressed the need to mobilize from all sources trillions of dollars; the loss and damage fund being negotiated by the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; the long promised $100 billion a year from rich to poor countries; the multilateral development funds and private capital; the data barriers to climate investments; and blended finance, de-risking instruments and green bonds.

Thus, the two specific sources noted – the loss and damage fund and the $100 billion – would produce only billions, not the trillions the New Delhi leaders said was needed.

These seven climate finance commitments were largely unambitious, low binding ones.

And they mobilized no new money.

The four additional commitments on clean energy finance did no better.

Three referred vaguely to facilitating low-cost financing for developing countries.

The only specific commitment was the familiar one on ending fossil fuel subsidies. It now read: "[We] will increase our efforts to implement the commitment made in 2009 in Pittsburgh to phase-out and rationalise, over the medium term, inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption and commit to achieve this objective, while providing targeted support for the poorest and the most vulnerable."

2. Predicted Compliance with These Commitments

Predicted full compliance one year from now with these 11 climate and energy finance commitments is very low, averaging only 50% (Rapson 2023). The seven climate finance ones average 53%. The four energy finance ones average 45%.

So we badly need better commitments now, crafted for better compliance (see Appendix C).

3. Recommendations for the Second New Delhi Summit, November 22, 2023

This is an urgent task. Since the New Delhi Summit, the existential climate crisis has gotten even worse, and certainly will in the year ahead.

So, at their virtual summit on November 22, and then at the UN's COP 28 in Dubai from November 30 to December 12, G20 leaders can and should do the following things. These draw on the recommendations offered in the T20's Policy Briefs this year (see Appendix D).

A. Keep Your Promises

Let's begin with the promises that G20 leaders have already made, are the easiest to do, raise the most money, and directly control.

1. End Fossil Fuel Subsidies to secure $7 trillion for climate finance, as G20 leaders have promised to do at almost every summit since September 2009 (Muzondo et al. 2023) (see Appendix E).
2. Produce the $100 billion a year in climate finance from the rich G20 members, as G20 leaders have promised to do since 2017 and most recently at New Delhi two months ago.
3. Create and fully fund the new loss and damage fund, as they promised to do at New Delhi two months ago.
4. Fund the Green Climate Fund (GFC), as they promised to do at every summit from 2011 to 2014.

If they simply keep these four promises, they would raise more than the amount estimated to be needed for climate change mitigation and adaptation now.

B. Do It Again, for Climate Now

But G20 leaders can and should do more, starting with what they successfully did to control the financial and Covid-19 crises.

5. Create new IMF Special Drawing Rights, as they did to a value of $500 billion at their April 2009 summit, to successfully control the American-turned-global financial crisis raging then. They did this again, when, prompted by the G20 finance ministers in 2021, they issued another $650 billion in SDRs to successfully control the deadly Covid-19 crisis proliferating then.
6. Channel into the IMF's Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) these recently created Covid-19 SDRs more, and devote them to its climate mandate and above all to finance projects with the greatest co-benefits for climate and health (Ranger et al. 2023).
7. Raise a "firefighting fund" of $500 billion directly from G20 members, as they did for their "firewall fund" at their Los Cabos Summit in 2012 to stop the exploding European financial crisis from going global.

C. Adopt Members' Individual Initiatives

A third set of actions involve building broader, ideally universal G20 regimes for actions that some of its members have successfully taken. The most promising are:

8. Price pollution through direct taxation or emissions trading schemes, as the European Union, Canada, several states within the United States and now China have done. But only 25% of global emissions are still covered by such measure within and beyond the G20. Most of the money raised should be transparently returned to citizens at regular intervals to strengthen political support.
9. Use carbon border adjustment mechanisms to raise tariff revenue, as G7 leaders agreed in 2022 and as the EU has begun to do.
10. Reduce agricultural subsidies that harm nature and health.

D. Other Measures

Many other promising measures exist that have not been mobilized in full. They include:

11. Tax airflights, ban frequent flyer reward programs.
12. Tax fossil fuel firms' excess profits arising from price spikes for their products or takeover bids.
13. Tax over-tourism, as Venice, Italy, has begun to do, and limit visits by cruise ships.
14. Swap debt for nature.
15. Reinterpret the Paris Agreement's Article 6.

References

Fontana-Raina, Stephanie, and Sebastien Grund (2023). "Debt-for-Nature Swaps: The Belize 2021 Deal and the Future of Green Sovereign Finance." https://debtcon6.princeton.edu/sites/g/files/toruqf3611/files/documents/fontana-raina.pdf.

Muzonso, Chido, Christopher Beaton, Guillermina French, Livi Gerbase, and Shruti Sharma (2023). "Financing a Fair Energy Transition Through Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reform." T20 Policy Brief, July 2023. https://t20ind.org/research/financing-a-fair-energy-transition-through-fossil-fuel-subsidy-reform.

Ranger, Nicola, Fulvia Marotta, Sam Fankhuaser and Brian O'Callaghan (2023). "Reforming the Global Financial Architecture to Drive a Resilient Net-Zero Transition." T20 Policy Brief, July 2023. https://t20ind.org/research/reforming-the-global-financial-architecture-to-drive-a-resilient-net-zero-transition.

Rapson, Jessica (2023). "Can Predictive AI Improve the Efficacy of the G20?" pp. 164-165, in John Kirton and Madeline Koch, eds., G20 India: The 2023 New Delhi Summit (London: GT Media). https://bit.ly/G20India.

Sandler, Ely and Daniel P. Schrag (2022). "Financing the Energy Transition through Cross-Border Investment: A New Model for Article 6 of the Paris Agreement." Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, November 2022. https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/financing-energy-transition-through-cross-border-investment.

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Appendix A: G20 Climate Finance Commitments ↩

Note: John Kirton June 2, 2023; Brittaney Warren, October 20, 2023. n/a = not available.

2009 London 1/3 = 33%
Overall climate compliance 45%, climate finance compliance 45%

2009 Pittsburgh 2/3 = 67%
Overall climate compliance 93%, climate finance compliance 93%

2009P-85: We will intensify our efforts, in cooperation with other parties, to reach agreement in Copenhagen through the UNFCCC negotiation. An agreement must include mitigation, adaptation, technology, and financing.

2009P-86: We welcome the work of the Finance Ministers and direct them to report back at their next meeting with a range of possible options for climate change financing to be provided as a resource to be considered in the UNFCCC negotiations at Copenhagen.

2010 Toronto 0/3 = 0%

2010 Seoul 1/8 = 13%
Climate finance compliance 65%

2010-133: We all are committed to achieving a successful, balanced result that includes the core issues of mitigation, transparency, finance, technology, adaptation, and forest preservation.

2011 Cannes 2/8 = 25%
Climate finance compliance 28%

2011-45: We discussed the IFIs report on climate finance and asked our Finance Ministers to continue work in this field, taking into account the objectives, provisions and principles of the UNFCCC

2011-247: We stand ready to work towards operationalization of the Green Climate Fund as part of a balanced outcome in Durban, building upon the report of the Transitional Committee

2012 Los Cabos 1/6 = 17%
2012-93: We welcome the creation of the G20 study group on climate finance, in order to consider ways to effectively mobilize resources taking into account the objectives, provisions and principles of the UNFCCC in line with the Cancun Agreement and ask to provide a progress report to Finance Ministers in November.

2013 St. Petersburg 1/12 = 8%
Climate finance compliance 40%

2013-188: we support the operationalization of the Green Climate Fund (GCF).

2014 Brisbane 2/7 = 29%
Compliance 63%, Climate finance compliance 55%

2014-75: Consistent with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its agreed outcomes, our actions will support sustainable development

2014-77: creating certainty for business and investment 90%

2014-79: We reaffirm our support for mobilising finance for adaptation [such as the Green Climate Fund.]

2014-80: [We reaffirm our support for mobilising finance for] mitigation, such as the Green Climate Fund.

2015 Antalya 0/3 = 0

2016 Hangzhou 0/2 = 0

2017 Hamburg 6/22 = 23%
Compliance 70%

2017-276: Encourage more private resources to be mobilized and efficiently allocated in line with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development with the contribution of MDBs.

2017-277: Mobilize and increase transparency of climate finance, including financial resources by developed countries to assist developing countries, with respect to both mitigation and adaptation in line with the obligations under the Paris Agreement.

2017-278: help overcome institutional and market barriers to green finance and private green investment.

2017-449: Those G20 countries who provide development assistance will strengthen their efforts to support partner countries in NDC implementation.

2017-479: We reemphasise the commitment by developed countries to the goal of mobilising jointly USD 100 billion per year by 2020, and their intention to continue this through 2025, in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation, from public and private sources, for mitigation and adaptation in developing countries, taking into account their needs and priorities.

2018 Buenos Aires 0/3 = 0%

2019 Osaka 1/13 = 8%
Climate finance compliance 93%

2019-116: To this end, we strive to foster inclusive finance for sustainable development, including public and private financing mobilization and alignment between them

2020 Riyadh 0/3 = 0%

2021 Rome 6/21 = 29%
2021-80: [We underline the many synergies in financial flows for climate, biodiversity and ecosystems, and] we will strengthen those synergies to maximize co-benefits.

2021-104: To this end, we reaffirm our commitment to the full and effective implementation of the UNFCCC and of the Paris Agreement, taking action across mitigation, adaptation and finance during this critical decade, on the basis of the best available scientific knowledge, reflecting the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in light of different national circumstances.

2021-106: In this endeavour, informed by the IPCC assessments, we will accelerate our actions across mitigation, adaptation and finance, acknowledging the key relevance of achieving global net zero greenhouse gas emissions or carbon neutrality by or around mid-century and the need to strengthen global efforts required to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement.

2021-109: We will deliver national recovery and resilience plans that allocate, according to national circumstances, an ambitious share of the financial resources to mitigating and adapting to climate change and avoid harm to the climate and environment.

2021-114: We also commit to scale up adaptation finance, with a view to achieving a balance with the provision of finance for mitigation to address the needs of developing countries including by facilitating mechanisms, conditions and procedures to access available funds, taking national strategies, priorities and needs into account.

2021-115: We recall and reaffirm the commitment made by developed countries, to the goal of mobilizing jointly USD 100 billion per year by 2020 and annually through 2025 to address the needs of developing countries, in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation and stress the importance of meeting that goal fully as soon as possible.

Bali 2022 5/18 = 28%
2022-84: We acknowledge the urgent need to strengthen policies and mobilize financing, from all sources in a predictable, adequate and timely manner to address climate change … including significantly increasing support for developing countries.

2022-87: We recall and further urge developed countries to fulfil their commitments to deliver on the goal of jointly mobilizing USD 100 billion per year urgently by 2020 and through to 2025 in the context of meaningful mitigation action and transparency on implementation.

2022-88: We also support continued deliberations on an ambitious new collective quantified goal of climate finance from a floor of USD 100 billion per year to support developing countries, that helps in fulfilling the objective of the UNFCCC and implementation of the Paris Agreement.

2022-89: We also recall the Glasgow Climate Pact urging developed countries to at least double their collective provision of climate finance for adaptation to developing countries, from 2019 levels, by 2025, in the context of achieving a balance between mitigation and adaptation in the provision of scaled up financial resource, recalling Article 9 of the Paris Agreement.

2022-94: We endorse the 2022 G20 Sustainable Finance Report which articulates practical and voluntary recommendations for jurisdictions and relevant stakeholders in developing transition finance frameworks, improving the credibility of financial institutions' net zero commitments and scaling up sustainable finance instruments, with a focus on improving accessibility and affordability. 

2023 New Delhi 7/18 = 39%
2023-144: We will undertake work to facilitate access to multilateral climate funds and enhance their leverage and ability to mobilize private capital.

2023-145: We endorse the multi-year G20 Technical Assistance Action Plan (TAAP) and the voluntary recommendations made to overcome data-related barriers to climate investments.

2023-147: We recognise the need for increased global investments to meet our climate goals of the Paris Agreement, and to rapidly and substantially scale up investment and climate finance from billions to trillions of dollars globally from all sources.

2023-148: We [recall and] reaffirm the commitment made in 2010 by the developed countries to the goal of mobilizing jointly USD 100 billion climate finance per year by 2020, and annually through 2025, to address the needs of the developing countries, in the context of meaningful mitigation action and transparency in implementation. Developed country contributors expect this goal to be met for the first time in 2023.

2023-149: We will work to successfully implement the decision at COP27 on funding arrangements for responding to loss and damage for assisting developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, including establishing a fund.

2023-150: We will support the Transitional Committee established in this regard, and look forward to its recommendations on operationalization of the new funding arrangements including a fund at COP28.

2023-151: encourage the development of financing mechanisms such as blended finance, de-risking instruments and green bonds for projects in developing countries.

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Appendix B: G20 Predicted Full Climate and Energy Finance Compliance, New Delhi Summit 2023 ↩

Climate Finance (N=7)

2023-144: We will undertake work to facilitate access to multilateral climate funds and enhance their leverage and ability to mobilize private capital.
Catalysts: climate, India, ministers, high binding
Predicted full compliance: 57%

2023-145: We endorse the multi-year G20 Technical Assistance Action Plan (TAAP) and the voluntary recommendations made to overcome data-related barriers to climate investments.
Catalysts: climate, India, ministerial
Predicted full compliance: 56%

2023-147: We recognise the need for increased global investments to meet our climate goals of the Paris Agreement, and to rapidly and substantially scale up investment and climate finance from billions to trillions of dollars globally from all sources.
Catalysts: climate, India, ministerial, core international organization
Predicted full compliance: 54%

2023-148: We [recall and] reaffirm the commitment made in 2010 by the developed countries to the goal of mobilizing jointly USD 100 billion climate finance per year by 2020, and annually through 2025, to address the needs of the developing countries, in the context of meaningful mitigation action and transparency in implementation. Developed country contributors expect this goal to be met for the first time in 2023.
Catalysts: climate, India, ministerial meeting, past G20 summit, specific date, multiyear timeframe, specific dollar amount, low binding
Predicted full compliance: 41%

2023-149: We will work to successfully implement the decision at COP27 on funding arrangements for responding to loss and damage for assisting developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, including establishing a fund.
Catalysts: climate, India, G20 ministers, core international organization, high binding
Predicted full compliance: 54%

2023-150: We will support the Transitional Committee established in this regard, and look forward to its recommendations on operationalization of the new funding arrangements including a fund at COP28.
Catalysts: climate, India, ministers, core international organization
Predicted full compliance: 54%

2023-151: We will encourage the development of financing mechanisms such as blended finance, de-risking instruments and green bonds for projects in developing countries.
Catalysts: climate, India, ministerial
Predicted full compliance: 56%

Average predicted full compliance of the seven climate finance commitments = 53%
John Kirton, October 30, 2023

G20 2023 New Delhi Energy Financing Commitments (N = 4)

2023-132: We support strong international and national enabling environments to foster innovation, voluntary and mutually agreed technology transfer, and access to low-cost financing.
Predicted full compliance: 45%

2023-133: Recognizing that developing countries need to be supported in their transitions to low carbon/emissions, we will work towards facilitating low-cost financing for them.
Predicted full compliance: 44%

2023-135: Will work towards facilitating access to low-cost financing for developing countries, for existing as well as new and emerging clean and sustainable energy technologies and for supporting the energy transitions.
Predicted full compliance: 44%

2023-143: Will increase our efforts to implement the commitment made in 2009 in Pittsburgh to phase-out and rationalise, over the medium term, inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption and commit to achieve this objective, while providing targeted support for the poorest and the most vulnerable.
Predicted full compliance: 46%

Average predicted full compliance with the four clean energy finance commitments = 45%
Brittaney Warren and John Kirton, October 30, 2023

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Appendix C: G20 Climate Finance Compliance by Subject ↩

Compiled by John Kirton, November 9, 2023

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Appendix D: Creating Climate Finance from Key Sources ↩

1. End fossil fuel subsidies: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that ending fossil fuels subsidies would save US$7 trillion a year, with $1 trillion in direct savings and $6 trillion in indirect savings. This would also cut greenhouse gas emissions by 20%, income inequality, illness, and corruption. G20 leaders have promised to do this at almost every summit since their third in Pittsburgh in September 2009, by a "medium term" deadline which meant by about 2014. They have not done so by 2023, with members compliance with their relevant commitments from 2009 to 2020 averaging only 56%. Moreover, compliance has declined from 70% to 2012 to 39% since 2014. Nigeria's new leader just immediately cancelled his country's fossil fuel subsidies after taking office this year. But many G20 members have increased their fossil fuel subsidies in 2023, most recently Germany on November 10, 2023.

2. Give $100 billion a year in climate finance to poor countries. This was promised at the UN Copenhagen Climate Summit in 2009. The promise was made by G20 summits from 2017 to 2023. Average compliance for this commitment in 2017 was only 43%.

3. Fund the loss and damage fund, as they promised to do at New Delhi two months ago.

4. Fund the Green Climate Fund, as they promised to do from 2011 to 2014. But compliance with these commitments averaged only 48%, and rose only slowly from 2014 with 28%, to 2013 40%, 2014 59%%

5. Create new IMF Climate Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), as they did to a value of $500 billion at their April 2009 summit, to successfully control the American-turned-global financial crisis raging then. They did this again, when prompted by the G20 finance ministers call in August 2021 they issued another $650 billion in SDRs to successfully control the deadly Covid-19 crisis proliferating then. They should again for the greater climate crisis now, whose estimated costs are much more.

   On July 18, 2020, G20 finance ministers and central bank governors stated in paragraph 8 of their communique: "We reiterate our commitment to ensure a stronger global financial safety net with a strong, quota-based, and adequately resourced IMF at its center, and will keep demands on the IMF resources under close review. We welcome the actions taken by the IMF in response to the crisis. We welcome the immediate financial contributions pledged to strengthen the IMF's crisis response capacity to address the critical funding needs of low-income countries and call for more and urgent contributions. We also call on the IMF to explore additional tools that could serve its members' needs as the crisis evolves, drawing on relevant experiences from previous crises." The IMF by November 10 had proposed a quota increase of 50%.

6. Channel into the IMF's Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) their recently created Covid-19 SDRs more, and devote them to its climate mandate and above all to finance projects with the greatest climate-health co-benefits (Ranger et al. 2023). IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva reported on November 10, 2023, at the Paris Peace Forum that the IMF exceeded $100 billion in SDR channelling and met its PGRT fundraising targets.

7. Raise a "firefighting fund" of $500 billion directly from G20 members, as they did for their "firewall fund" at their June 2012 Los Cabos Summit to stop the exploding European financial crisis from going global.

8. Price pollution through direct taxation or emissions trading schemes, as the European Union, Canada, several states within the United States and now China have done. But only 25% of global emissions are still covered by such measure within and beyond the G20. Most of the money raised should be transparently returned to citizens at regular intervals to strengthen political support.

9. Use carbon border adjustment mechanisms to raise tariff revenue, as G7 leaders agreed in 2022 and as the European Union has begun to do.

10. Reduce agricultural subsidies that harm nature and health.

11. Reinterpret the Paris Agreement's Article 6.

    The commitment made at Bali in 2022-89 stated "We also recall the Glasgow Climate Pact urging developed countries to at least double their collective provision of climate finance for adaptation to developing countries, from 2019 levels, by 2025, in the context of achieving a balance between mitigation and adaptation in the provision of scaled up financial resource, recalling Article 9 of the Paris Agreement."

12. Tax air flights, and ban frequent flyer reward programs.

13. Tax fossil fuel firms' excess profits arising from price spikes for their products or takeover bids.

14. Tax over-tourism, as Venice, Italy, has begun to do, and limit visits by cruise ships.

15. Swap debt for nature.

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Appendix E: Compliance with G20 Summit Fossil Fuel Subsidy Phaseout Commitments ↩

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