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Analysis

Recommendations Realized: The 2016 G20 Hangzhou Summit

Brittaney Warren and Meredith Williams, G20 Research Group
May 5, 2017

The G20 Recommendations Realized Report identifies the content and impact of the recommendations that world leaders, business leaders, civil society leaders and academics make to G20 leaders in the immediate lead-up to the annual summit as published in the "background books" produced by the G20 Research Group with Newsdesk Media. These books are published in print and for an online audience in the lead-up to the Group of Seven (G7) and Group of 20 (G20) summits. They are among the world's leading G20 publications, featuring exclusive contributions from the most prominent figures in G20 and global affairs.

This first report, prepared in reference to the G20 summit held on September 4-5, 2016, in Hangzhou, China, has two components. The first is "recommendations made" to the G20 by the contributors to the G20 China: The Hangzhou Summit 2016 background book. The second is "recommendations realized," which identifies which recommendations were realized in the G20 leaders' summit declaration in the form of a public, future-oriented, politically binding, collective commitment. The recommendations realized component is scored according to the three-point scale created by the G20 Research Group for its assessment of G20 members' compliance with their summit commitments. A score of +1 indicates the recommendation was fully realized, a score of 0 indicates a recommendation was partially realized and a score of −1 indicates a recommendation was not realized. Subsequent reports will assess how well the recommendations realized were implemented during the following years.

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Recommendations Made

In G20 China, 66 recommendations were made by 33 contributors. Contributors include G20 leaders, leaders of invited countries, representatives of international and intergovernmental organizations, representatives of nongovernmental organizations, and academics. Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Union, made seven, which was the most of any contributor (see Appendix A). His primary advice was on strengthening the G20's approach to sustainable growth, addressing tax avoidance, and bringing peace and stability to regions in conflict and the global refugee crisis. Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan made the second highest, with six that addressed geostrategic risk, terrorism, inclusiveness in innovation, strengthening global trade, equitable and sustainable economic growth, and forcibly displaced peoples. Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau came next with four recommendations echoing his 2015 domestic electoral platform of inclusive growth; connected investments, including in green infrastructure spending and technology; reinvigorating the economy; and engagement with businesses, civil society and other government institutions. Egyptian president Abdel Fattah El-Sisi's three recommendations had the common theme of inclusiveness. Chinese president Xi Jinping, host of the Hangzhou Summit, made two recommendations on innovation-driven global growth.

Apart from government leaders, the contributors included civil society leaders and academics at the forefront of global governance. James Hospedales, executive director of the Caribbean Public Health Agency, suggested the G20 could support regional health initiatives by "supporting and investing" small states' efforts to pool resources. Several contributors called on the G20 to scale up its efforts to control climate change. Eduardo da Costa Paes, chair of the C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group, recommended that G20 leaders "ensure that city governments can directly access the growing green finance funding" and recognize the role of cities in building a low-carbon future. Scott Vaughn, CEO of the International Institution for Sustainable Development (IISD), urged the G20 to "accelerate" its past-due medium-term timetable to phase out fossil fuel subsidies. In an exclusive interview Paul Martin, Canada's former prime minister and one of the G20's founders, recommended that the G20 "reviv[e] a sick ocean by creating a new economic domain." Finally, John Kirton, Co-director of the G20 Research Group, stated that the G20 "need[s] to take his [Chinese president Xi Jinping] vision of an ecological civilization for China as their blueprint for the world." Other recommendations included setting out a medium- to long-term plan to increase the ratio of women to men in the workplace and to foster knowledge sharing through South-South and North-South cooperation.

The most frequently made recommendations were on fostering economic growth and sustainable development, with nine each (see Appendix B). Ensuring inclusive growth had eight, in line with the G20's second foundational mission of making globalization work for all. Energy had six, including eliminating fossil fuel subsidies. Climate change and gender each had five. Four each were made on migration and refugees, terrorism, outreach, food security and cooperation with other international institutions. Less popular issues included financial inclusion, health, trade, knowledge sharing, the digital economy, taxation, youth, regional stability, the environment, labour and employment, investment, and security in tourism.

Of the 66 recommendations, 12, or 18%, called for an increase in funding and investment of resources to implement new programs and regulations. Three recommendations called for investment in developing countries to help strengthen the middle class in the short- and long-term, and three called for investment to strengthen sustainable development and expand financial inclusion. Two called for an increase in green technology finance and promoting food programs, respectively.

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Recommendations Realized

How well were these recommendations realized in the G20 leaders' communiqué?

To answer, the G20 Research Group analyzed the degree to which these 66 recommendations were realized in the 139 commitments made by the G20 leaders in their Hangzhou Summit communiqué (see Appendix A).

Overall, of the 66 recommendations made in G20 China, 45, or 68%, were realized in the summit results (see Appendix C). Sixteen recommendations were realized in more than one commitment, 29 recommendations were realized in one commitment and 21 recommendations were not realized in any commitment. In total, 24 recommendations received a score of +1, 21 received a score of 0 and 21 received a score of −1.

The most influential recommendations came in the issue areas of economic growth and development, with seven recommendations realized each (see Appendix D). Next came recommendations on labour and employment, with five realized. Taxation, innovation, and trade and investment had four recommendations realized each. Terrorism had three recommendations realized, followed by food and agriculture with two. Migration, crime and corruption, macroeconomic policy, regional security, financial regulation, international cooperation, health, energy, and "other" each had one recommendation realized.

Of the contributors, G20 members had the most recommendations realized at 16 (see Appendix A). This was followed by four realized recommendations made by contributors from the United Nations and academia. Among contributors who were ministers in G20 governments or representatives of global networks or international organizations, two recommendations were realized. Among contributors who were leaders of countries not in the G20 or representatives of non-governmental organizations, regional organizations, and intergovernmental bodies and associations, there was one realized recommendation each.

The most influential individual contributors were Jean-Claude Juncker, who made seven recommendations and had five realized in politically binding commitments, and Recep Erdogan, who made six recommendations and also had five realized.

Other contributors made fewer recommendations but had more realized as a percentage. Justin Trudeau was an influential contributor with 100% of his four recommendations realized. Xi Jinping also had 100% of his two recommendations realized. Also making two fully realized recommendations were two contributors from the UN and two from academia: UN Development Programme administrator Helen Clark, UN Women executive director Phumzile Mlambo-Ngucka, Wang Wen and Jia Jinjing of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, and Julia Kulik, Director of the Research at the G20 Research Group.

Additionally, seven contributors made one recommendation that was fully realized. Of these, one was a leader of a country outside the G20 (Macky Sall, president of Senegal); three were government officials representing China (Li Baodong, G20 sherpa and minister of foreign affairs, and Han Changfu, minister of agriculture); one was from the G7-created institution the Financial Action Task Force (Juan Manuel Vega-Serrano, president); two were from international organizations (Guy Rider, director general, International Labour Organization, and Andreas Shleicher, director of education and skills at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development); and one was from a regional organization (James Hospedales, Caribbean Public Health Agency).

Other contributors had their recommendations partially realized in the Hangzhou communiqué. These were Fayez Choudhury, CEO, International Federation of Accountants, with three recommendations made and one realized; Scott Vaughn, IISD, with two made and one realized; and Alfred Hannig, executive director, Alliance for Financial Inclusion, with five made and two realized.

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Conclusion

Of the 66 recommendations by 33 contributors in G20 China, 45 were realized in the form of a politically binding commitment in the G20's collective communiqué produced at the 2016 Hangzhou Summit. Of these, there was a strong connection to the G20's two foundational missions of ensuring financial stability and making globalization work for the benefit of all. Moreover, the majority of the realized recommendations came from contributors within the G20 club.

Indeed, the most recommendations were made and realized in the issue area of economic growth and development, with nine made and seven realized in both areas. These recommendations reflect the G20's first foundational mission to ensure financial and economic stability, as well as its focus on reviving sluggish post-2008 global growth.

The G20's other foundational mission of making globalization work for the benefit of all, via one of the three thematic pillars of the Hangzhou Summit of inclusive growth, was also a shared concern of contributors and G20 leaders. Of the eight economic growth recommendations that were realized, three focused on inclusiveness. Additionally, financial inclusion was embedded in two realized recommendations made in the context of development and financial regulation. On gender inclusiveness, with five recommendations made, two were realized that sought to increase the female-to-male labour participation ratio.

Other issue areas less obviously related to the G20's distinctive missions were not as well realized. Climate change and energy were two issues that had a substantial number of recommendations made but next to none realized. On climate change six were made and on energy five were made, with both partially realized in just one commitment.

Of the contributors, the most influential ones were G20 members themselves. This was followed by the G20-supported UN and those affiliated with internationally significant academic institutions. Recommendations made by civil society or other international organizations were less influential.

G20 leaders tend to prefer to make commitments on issues that are most directly linked to their stated distinctive missions. It is therefore no surprise that the G20's collective commitments more strongly reflect the recommendations made by its own members, and the UN institution the G20 has long supported and worked through, as it is more likely that these actors will make recommendations that already align with the G20's values and global governance goals. This suggests that a more effective route to influencing the G20, by those with relatively less influence, may be through the individual G20 leaders themselves at home who can then take these issues to the other club members on the international stage and negotiate for their inclusion in the collective outcome documents produced at their summits.

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Appendix A: Recommendations Made and Realized by Contributor

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Appendix B: Recommendations Made by Issue Area

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Appendix C: Recommendation Realized and Degree of Match

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Appendix D: Recommendation Realized by Issue area

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